DDM Analysis: NCM.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$55.68 - $257.49	$125.40
Multi-Stage	$36.40 - $39.87	$38.10
Blended Fair Value	$81.75
Current Price	$26.42
Upside	209.43%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	29.89%	6.57%	0.53	0.41	0.27	0.20	0.15	0.14	0.12	0.04	0.03	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	28.23%	55.00%	35.59%	35.11%	1.55%	16.22%	246.88%	32.25%	50.91%	-93.65%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.01%	2.45%	1.06%	0.63%	0.42%	0.66%	0.61%	0.16%	0.21%	0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,171.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	449.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	721.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	234.21	146.38	87.83
Cash Retained (M)	721.46	721.46	721.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-234.21	-146.38	-87.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)	487.25	575.08	633.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	896.63	896.63	896.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.54	0.64	0.71
LTM Dividend per Share	0.50	0.50	0.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.54	0.64	0.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.04	1.14	1.21
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	4.57%	5.57%	6.57%
Fair Value	$55.68	$125.40	$257.49
Upside / Downside	110.77%	374.63%	874.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,171.07	1,236.25	1,305.06	1,377.69	1,454.37	1,535.32	1,581.38
Payout Ratio	38.39%	48.71%	59.04%	69.36%	79.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	449.61	602.23	770.45	955.53	1,158.82	1,381.79	1,462.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.53%	6.53%	6.53%
Growth Rate	4.57%	5.57%	6.57%
Year 1 PV (M)	559.97	565.33	570.68
Year 2 PV (M)	666.12	678.92	691.84
Year 3 PV (M)	768.16	790.41	813.09
Year 4 PV (M)	866.22	899.84	934.42
Year 5 PV (M)	960.41	1,007.22	1,055.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	28,818.97	30,223.62	31,682.50
Equity Value (M)	32,639.86	34,165.33	35,748.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	896.63	896.63	896.63
Fair Value	$36.40	$38.10	$39.87
Upside / Downside	37.79%	44.22%	50.91%

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Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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