DDM Analysis: KOG.OL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$170.12 - $402.91	$250.87
Multi-Stage	$123.26 - $134.49	$128.77
Blended Fair Value	$189.82
Current Price	$390.85
Upside	-51.43%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	40.62%	14.64%	2.80	0.73	3.09	1.62	2.56	0.51	0.51	0.51	0.58	1.26
YoY Growth	-	-	286.05%	-76.50%	90.53%	-36.61%	401.79%	0.00%	0.00%	-11.98%	-54.02%	76.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.91%	0.49%	3.65%	2.31%	6.52%	1.95%	1.92%	1.52%	2.50%	5.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,052.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,990.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,062.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,410.40	881.50	528.90
Cash Retained (M)	4,062.00	4,062.00	4,062.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,410.40	-881.50	-528.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,651.60	3,180.50	3,533.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	879.09	879.09	879.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.02	3.62	4.02
LTM Dividend per Share	3.40	3.40	3.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.02	3.62	4.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.42	7.02	7.42
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$170.12	$250.87	$402.91
Upside / Downside	-56.47%	-35.81%	3.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,052.00	7,510.38	7,998.55	8,518.46	9,072.16	9,661.85	9,951.71
Payout Ratio	42.40%	51.92%	61.44%	70.96%	80.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,990.00	3,899.35	4,914.28	6,044.68	7,301.26	8,695.67	9,205.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,528.26	3,561.71	3,595.15
Year 2 PV (M)	4,023.44	4,100.08	4,177.43
Year 3 PV (M)	4,477.95	4,606.50	4,737.48
Year 4 PV (M)	4,894.11	5,082.32	5,275.91
Year 5 PV (M)	5,274.09	5,528.83	5,793.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	86,163.29	90,325.01	94,646.01
Equity Value (M)	108,361.14	113,204.44	118,225.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	879.09	879.09	879.09
Fair Value	$123.26	$128.77	$134.49
Upside / Downside	-68.46%	-67.05%	-65.59%

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Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG.OL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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