DDM Analysis: JOE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.43 - $17.79	$15.06
Multi-Stage	$19.58 - $21.50	$20.52
Blended Fair Value	$17.79
Current Price	$49.48
Upside	-64.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.52	0.44	0.40	0.32	0.07	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	18.25%	9.22%	24.69%	357.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.11%	0.77%	0.97%	0.55%	0.17%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	104.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	79.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	20.92	13.08	7.85
Cash Retained (M)	79.46	79.46	79.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-20.92	-13.08	-7.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.54	66.38	71.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	58.13	58.13	58.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.01	1.14	1.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.43	0.43	0.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.01	1.14	1.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.44	1.57	1.66
WACC / Discount Rate	9.35%	9.35%	9.35%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$12.43	$15.06	$17.79
Upside / Downside	-74.89%	-69.57%	-64.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	104.61	103.57	102.53	101.50	100.49	99.48	102.47
Payout Ratio	24.05%	37.24%	50.43%	63.62%	76.81%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25.15	38.56	51.70	64.58	77.19	89.54	94.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.35%	9.35%	9.35%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	34.91	35.26	35.62
Year 2 PV (M)	42.37	43.24	44.11
Year 3 PV (M)	47.90	49.38	50.89
Year 4 PV (M)	51.83	53.97	56.19
Year 5 PV (M)	54.42	57.26	60.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	906.62	953.83	1,002.99
Equity Value (M)	1,138.04	1,192.94	1,250.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	58.13	58.13	58.13
Fair Value	$19.58	$20.52	$21.50
Upside / Downside	-60.43%	-58.53%	-56.54%

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The St. Joe Company (JOE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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