DDM Analysis: IRFC.BO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$127.78 - $356.65	$198.42
Multi-Stage	$86.85 - $94.87	$90.79
Blended Fair Value	$144.60
Current Price	$123.51
Upside	17.08%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	71.94%	30.25%	2.30	1.50	1.43	0.77	1.44	0.15	0.29	0.18	0.51	0.12
YoY Growth	-	-	53.33%	4.90%	85.71%	-46.25%	836.10%	-46.67%	60.58%	-65.03%	339.35%	-28.96%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.63%	0.87%	4.38%	3.93%	5.78%	0.62%	1.16%	0.72%	2.06%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	68,352.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20,909.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)	47,442.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13,670.40	8,544.00	5,126.40
Cash Retained (M)	47,442.40	47,442.40	47,442.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13,670.40	-8,544.00	-5,126.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	33,772.00	38,898.40	42,316.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13,044.77	13,044.77	13,044.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.59	2.98	3.24
LTM Dividend per Share	1.60	1.60	1.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.59	2.98	3.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.19	4.58	4.85
WACC / Discount Rate	8.96%	8.96%	8.96%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$127.78	$198.42	$356.65
Upside / Downside	3.46%	60.65%	188.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	68,352.00	72,794.88	77,526.55	82,565.77	87,932.55	93,648.16	96,457.61
Payout Ratio	30.59%	42.47%	54.35%	66.24%	78.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20,909.60	30,918.06	42,139.27	54,688.61	68,691.33	84,283.35	89,223.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.96%	8.96%	8.96%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	28,108.93	28,375.36	28,641.80
Year 2 PV (M)	34,829.82	35,493.23	36,162.90
Year 3 PV (M)	41,095.40	42,275.10	43,477.16
Year 4 PV (M)	46,927.81	48,732.52	50,588.79
Year 5 PV (M)	52,348.25	54,876.69	57,501.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	929,662.12	974,565.15	1,021,186.72
Equity Value (M)	1,132,972.32	1,184,318.05	1,237,559.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	13,044.77	13,044.77	13,044.77
Fair Value	$86.85	$90.79	$94.87
Upside / Downside	-29.68%	-26.49%	-23.19%

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Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC.BO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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