DDM Analysis: ICL

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.21 - $5.27	$4.13
Multi-Stage	$6.93 - $7.62	$7.27
Blended Fair Value	$5.70
Current Price	$6.22
Upside	-8.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.67%	-11.43%	0.19	0.37	0.90	0.21	0.09	0.21	0.19	0.18	0.13	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	-47.05%	-59.35%	322.46%	133.90%	-56.78%	13.28%	1.69%	46.30%	-53.31%	-58.93%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.42%	6.90%	13.28%	1.77%	1.57%	6.89%	3.50%	4.38%	2.95%	6.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	369.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	230.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	138.32

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	73.80	46.13	27.68
Cash Retained (M)	138.32	138.32	138.32
(-) Cash Required (M)	-73.80	-46.13	-27.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)	64.52	92.19	110.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,291.19	1,291.19	1,291.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.18	0.18	0.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.26
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	-0.86%	0.14%	1.14%
Fair Value	$3.21	$4.13	$5.27
Upside / Downside	-48.46%	-33.67%	-15.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	369.00	369.50	370.00	370.50	371.00	371.50	382.65
Payout Ratio	62.52%	68.01%	73.51%	79.01%	84.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	230.68	251.31	271.99	292.72	313.51	334.35	353.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	-0.86%	0.14%	1.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	234.26	236.62	238.99
Year 2 PV (M)	236.34	241.13	245.97
Year 3 PV (M)	237.11	244.35	251.75
Year 4 PV (M)	236.72	246.42	256.41
Year 5 PV (M)	235.34	247.45	260.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,773.63	8,173.69	8,590.06
Equity Value (M)	8,953.40	9,389.67	9,843.23
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,291.19	1,291.19	1,291.19
Fair Value	$6.93	$7.27	$7.62
Upside / Downside	11.48%	16.91%	22.56%

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ICL Group Ltd (ICL)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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