DDM Analysis: ESLT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$210.28 - $493.26	$309.10
Multi-Stage	$153.28 - $167.50	$160.26
Blended Fair Value	$234.68
Current Price	$509.80
Upside	-53.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	7.29%	2.68%	1.92	1.93	1.88	1.71	1.69	1.35	1.63	1.63	1.48	1.51
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.32%	2.80%	9.65%	1.25%	24.95%	-16.90%	0.01%	10.01%	-1.93%	2.22%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.50%	0.93%	1.10%	0.78%	1.18%	1.06%	1.24%	1.35%	1.30%	1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	463.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	99.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	364.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	92.72	57.95	34.77
Cash Retained (M)	364.44	364.44	364.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-92.72	-57.95	-34.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	271.72	306.49	329.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	46.21	46.21	46.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.88	6.63	7.13
LTM Dividend per Share	2.15	2.15	2.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.88	6.63	7.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	8.03	8.78	9.28
WACC / Discount Rate	9.31%	9.31%	9.31%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Fair Value	$210.28	$309.10	$493.26
Upside / Downside	-58.75%	-39.37%	-3.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	463.58	492.73	523.72	556.65	591.66	628.86	647.73
Payout Ratio	21.39%	35.11%	48.83%	62.55%	76.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	99.14	172.99	255.74	348.21	451.30	565.98	599.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.31%	9.31%	9.31%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	156.78	158.26	159.75
Year 2 PV (M)	210.04	214.05	218.09
Year 3 PV (M)	259.17	266.63	274.22
Year 4 PV (M)	304.41	316.14	328.21
Year 5 PV (M)	345.97	362.71	380.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,807.30	6,088.37	6,380.22
Equity Value (M)	7,083.66	7,406.16	7,740.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	46.21	46.21	46.21
Fair Value	$153.28	$160.26	$167.50
Upside / Downside	-69.93%	-68.56%	-67.14%

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Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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