Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Companhia de Gás de São Paulo - COMGÁS (CGAS3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,324.05 - $2,565.22$2,403.98
Multi-Stage$398.22 - $436.00$416.76
Blended Fair Value$1,410.37
Current Price$128.00
Upside1,001.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.36%49.74%21.823.4314.9413.169.0616.046.048.9510.923.68
YoY Growth--535.95%-77.03%13.52%45.26%-43.50%165.62%-32.52%-18.11%196.46%857.31%
Dividend Yield--15.93%2.39%11.67%10.23%5.88%9.06%7.38%15.34%23.43%9.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,616.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)544.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,072.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)323.39202.12121.27
Cash Retained (M)1,072.791,072.791,072.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-323.39-202.12-121.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)749.41870.68951.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.36125.36125.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.986.957.59
LTM Dividend per Share4.344.344.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.986.957.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3211.2911.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,324.05$2,403.98$2,565.22
Upside / Downside934.41%1,778.11%1,904.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,616.931,722.031,833.961,953.172,080.122,215.332,281.79
Payout Ratio33.65%44.92%56.19%67.46%78.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)544.14773.571,030.531,317.631,637.691,993.802,110.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)720.74727.57734.40
Year 2 PV (M)894.58911.62928.82
Year 3 PV (M)1,065.691,096.281,127.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,234.091,281.551,330.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,399.831,467.441,537.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,605.1446,759.5848,996.48
Equity Value (M)49,920.0652,244.0454,655.16
Shares Outstanding (M)125.36125.36125.36
Fair Value$398.22$416.76$436.00
Upside / Downside211.11%225.60%240.62%

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