DDM Analysis: CENTEL-R.BK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.09 - $23.11	$18.11
Multi-Stage	$23.09 - $25.34	$24.19
Blended Fair Value	$21.15
Current Price	$30.00
Upside	-29.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-8.36%	0.49%	0.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.65	0.60	0.55	0.50	0.40
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	8.34%	9.09%	10.02%	24.98%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.46%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.22%	1.32%	1.12%	1.41%	0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,685.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	796.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	889.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	337.12	210.70	126.42
Cash Retained (M)	889.10	889.10	889.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-337.12	-210.70	-126.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	551.98	678.40	762.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,350.00	1,350.00	1,350.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.41	0.50	0.56
LTM Dividend per Share	0.59	0.59	0.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.41	0.50	0.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.00	1.09	1.15
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	0.24%	1.24%	2.24%
Fair Value	$14.09	$18.11	$23.11
Upside / Downside	-53.05%	-39.65%	-22.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,685.60	1,706.48	1,727.62	1,749.03	1,770.69	1,792.63	1,846.41
Payout Ratio	47.25%	55.80%	64.35%	72.90%	81.45%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	796.50	952.26	1,111.76	1,275.06	1,442.24	1,613.36	1,707.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.35%	7.35%	7.35%
Growth Rate	0.24%	1.24%	2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	878.32	887.08	895.84
Year 2 PV (M)	945.81	964.78	983.93
Year 3 PV (M)	1,000.51	1,030.75	1,061.60
Year 4 PV (M)	1,043.82	1,086.10	1,129.65
Year 5 PV (M)	1,077.00	1,131.81	1,188.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)	26,224.99	27,559.48	28,947.74
Equity Value (M)	31,170.45	32,660.00	34,207.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,350.00	1,350.00	1,350.00
Fair Value	$23.09	$24.19	$25.34
Upside / Downside	-23.04%	-19.36%	-15.54%

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Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (CENTEL-R.BK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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