DDM Analysis: BC88.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.26 - $7.21	$4.70
Multi-Stage	$2.94 - $3.21	$3.07
Blended Fair Value	$3.89
Current Price	$0.97
Upside	300.55%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.82%	5.14%	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	14.45%	20.14%	21.01%	14.42%	9.47%	9.20%	35.94%	0.00%	-100.00%	-34.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.32%	6.40%	4.74%	3.92%	3.42%	3.10%	2.84%	2.09%	0.00%	2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	46.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.32	5.83	3.50
Cash Retained (M)	6.10	6.10	6.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.32	-5.83	-3.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-3.22	0.28	2.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	278.84	278.84	278.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.15	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	8.70%	8.70%	8.70%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Fair Value	$3.26	$4.70	$7.21
Upside / Downside	236.09%	384.19%	643.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	46.60	49.12	51.78	54.59	57.55	60.66	62.48
Payout Ratio	86.91%	87.53%	88.15%	88.76%	89.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.50	43.00	45.65	48.46	51.44	54.60	57.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.70%	8.70%	8.70%
Growth Rate	4.42%	5.42%	6.42%
Year 1 PV (M)	39.18	39.56	39.93
Year 2 PV (M)	37.90	38.63	39.37
Year 3 PV (M)	36.67	37.73	38.81
Year 4 PV (M)	35.47	36.84	38.26
Year 5 PV (M)	34.30	35.98	37.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	637.33	668.44	700.75
Equity Value (M)	820.85	857.18	894.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	278.84	278.84	278.84
Fair Value	$2.94	$3.07	$3.21
Upside / Downside	203.48%	216.92%	230.84%

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Chemring Group PLC (BC88.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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