DDM Analysis: ASRM.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$157.85 - $302.01	$215.74
Multi-Stage	$161.28 - $176.78	$168.88
Blended Fair Value	$192.31
Current Price	$368.00
Upside	-47.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.43%	5.19%	15.89	16.05	13.46	10.34	13.20	14.80	17.28	16.81	16.54	14.80
YoY Growth	-	-	-1.01%	19.23%	30.17%	-21.69%	-10.77%	-14.37%	2.83%	1.61%	11.76%	54.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.16%	4.17%	3.32%	2.59%	3.47%	3.91%	8.17%	7.94%	7.82%	7.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,274.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11,274.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,454.87	1,534.29	920.58
Cash Retained (M)	11,274.36	11,274.36	11,274.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,454.87	-1,534.29	-920.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,819.49	9,740.06	10,353.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,232.35	1,232.35	1,232.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	7.16	7.90	8.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.81	0.81	0.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share	7.16	7.90	8.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.97	8.72	9.21
WACC / Discount Rate	8.40%	8.40%	8.40%
Growth Rate	3.19%	4.19%	5.19%
Fair Value	$157.85	$215.74	$302.01
Upside / Downside	-57.11%	-41.37%	-17.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,274.36	12,789.09	13,325.40	13,884.21	14,466.44	15,073.10	15,525.29
Payout Ratio	8.15%	24.52%	40.89%	57.26%	73.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,000.00	3,135.58	5,448.52	7,949.93	10,651.56	13,565.79	14,360.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.40%	8.40%	8.40%
Growth Rate	3.19%	4.19%	5.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,864.78	2,892.54	2,920.30
Year 2 PV (M)	4,548.03	4,636.60	4,726.03
Year 3 PV (M)	6,062.90	6,240.87	6,422.29
Year 4 PV (M)	7,421.68	7,713.56	8,013.98
Year 5 PV (M)	8,635.87	9,062.49	9,505.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	169,216.91	177,576.38	186,262.99
Equity Value (M)	198,750.16	208,122.43	217,851.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,232.35	1,232.35	1,232.35
Fair Value	$161.28	$168.88	$176.78
Upside / Downside	-56.17%	-54.11%	-51.96%

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PT Asuransi Ramayana Tbk (ASRM.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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