DDM Analysis: ARCO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$79.20 - $231.62	$217.06
Multi-Stage	$31.46 - $34.44	$32.92
Blended Fair Value	$124.99
Current Price	$7.89
Upside	1,484.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.65%	0.10%	0.24	0.19	0.15	0.00	0.05	0.11	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	26.32%	26.70%	150,314.29%	-99.79%	-54.43%	7.11%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-75.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.98%	1.70%	1.94%	0.00%	0.97%	3.24%	1.40%	0.00%	0.00%	1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	245.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	50.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)	194.79

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	49.07	30.67	18.40
Cash Retained (M)	194.79	194.79	194.79
(-) Cash Required (M)	-49.07	-30.67	-18.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	145.72	164.12	176.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	210.66	210.66	210.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.78	0.84
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.69	0.78	0.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.02	1.08
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$79.20	$217.06	$231.62
Upside / Downside	903.81%	2,651.11%	2,835.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	245.35	261.30	278.28	296.37	315.63	336.15	346.24
Payout Ratio	20.61%	34.49%	48.36%	62.24%	76.12%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	50.56	90.11	134.59	184.47	240.27	302.54	320.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.74%	6.74%	6.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	83.63	84.42	85.21
Year 2 PV (M)	115.92	118.13	120.36
Year 3 PV (M)	147.45	151.68	155.99
Year 4 PV (M)	178.23	185.08	192.13
Year 5 PV (M)	208.27	218.33	228.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,893.42	6,178.07	6,473.62
Equity Value (M)	6,626.91	6,935.71	7,256.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	210.66	210.66	210.66
Fair Value	$31.46	$32.92	$34.44
Upside / Downside	298.70%	317.28%	336.55%

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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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