DDM Analysis: ARB.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$197.26 - $482.30	$451.98
Multi-Stage	$70.13 - $76.77	$73.39
Blended Fair Value	$262.69
Current Price	$32.70
Upside	703.33%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	9.39%	0.73%	0.29	0.54	0.55	0.61	0.00	0.18	0.29	0.31	0.32	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	-47.35%	-1.25%	-9.98%	0.00%	-100.00%	-36.78%	-6.44%	-2.72%	8.22%	10.30%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.87%	1.46%	1.92%	2.16%	0.00%	1.01%	1.56%	1.35%	2.01%	1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	200.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	68.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)	131.95

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	40.04	25.03	15.02
Cash Retained (M)	131.95	131.95	131.95
(-) Cash Required (M)	-40.04	-25.03	-15.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	91.90	106.92	116.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	82.56	82.56	82.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.11	1.30	1.42
LTM Dividend per Share	0.83	0.83	0.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.11	1.30	1.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.94	2.12	2.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$197.26	$451.98	$482.30
Upside / Downside	503.25%	1,282.22%	1,374.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	200.21	213.22	227.08	241.84	257.56	274.31	282.53
Payout Ratio	34.10%	45.28%	56.46%	67.64%	78.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	68.26	96.54	128.21	163.58	203.01	246.87	261.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	89.77	90.62	91.47
Year 2 PV (M)	110.84	112.95	115.09
Year 3 PV (M)	131.50	135.28	139.12
Year 4 PV (M)	151.75	157.58	163.58
Year 5 PV (M)	171.58	179.87	188.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,134.55	5,382.55	5,640.05
Equity Value (M)	5,789.99	6,058.85	6,337.78
Shares Outstanding (M)	82.56	82.56	82.56
Fair Value	$70.13	$73.39	$76.77
Upside / Downside	114.48%	124.44%	134.77%

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ARB Corporation Limited (ARB.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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