Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co., Ltd. (688278.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.61 - $118.93$73.45
Multi-Stage$35.13 - $38.36$36.72
Blended Fair Value$55.08
Current Price$84.05
Upside-34.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS117.96%0.00%0.410.210.100.050.030.010.010.010.010.00
YoY Growth--92.49%113.00%100.00%59.85%275.28%-9.80%-6.57%-11.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.34%0.22%0.17%0.10%0.03%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)939.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)687.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.92117.4570.47
Cash Retained (M)687.21687.21687.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.92-117.45-70.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)499.30569.77616.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)406.50406.50406.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.401.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.401.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.022.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.61$73.45$118.93
Upside / Downside-40.98%-12.61%41.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)939.581,000.651,065.691,134.961,208.731,287.301,325.92
Payout Ratio26.86%39.49%52.12%64.74%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.36395.13555.39734.82935.221,158.571,226.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)357.68361.07364.46
Year 2 PV (M)455.10463.77472.52
Year 3 PV (M)545.06560.71576.65
Year 4 PV (M)627.97652.12676.96
Year 5 PV (M)704.21738.23773.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,589.2912,149.0612,730.25
Equity Value (M)14,279.3314,924.9615,594.39
Shares Outstanding (M)406.50406.50406.50
Fair Value$35.13$36.72$38.36
Upside / Downside-58.21%-56.32%-54.36%

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