DDM Analysis: 6533.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3,179.35 - $3,745.81	$3,510.37
Multi-Stage	$1,202.14 - $1,317.77	$1,258.88
Blended Fair Value	$2,384.63
Current Price	$753.00
Upside	216.68%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.92%	0.00%	10.07	9.02	8.03	7.00	5.62	4.42	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	11.61%	12.31%	14.68%	24.67%	27.20%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	0.83%	0.47%	0.23%	0.18%	0.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	183.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	77.77

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	36.75	22.97	13.78
Cash Retained (M)	77.77	77.77	77.77
(-) Cash Required (M)	-36.75	-22.97	-13.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	41.01	54.80	63.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	9.76	9.76	9.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.20	5.62	6.56
LTM Dividend per Share	10.86	10.86	10.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.20	5.62	6.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend	15.07	16.48	17.42
WACC / Discount Rate	4.66%	4.66%	4.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3,179.35	$3,510.37	$3,745.81
Upside / Downside	322.22%	366.19%	397.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	183.77	195.71	208.43	221.98	236.41	251.78	259.33
Payout Ratio	57.68%	64.15%	70.61%	77.07%	83.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	106.00	125.54	147.17	171.09	197.49	226.60	239.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.66%	4.66%	4.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	118.83	119.95	121.08
Year 2 PV (M)	131.86	134.37	136.90
Year 3 PV (M)	145.09	149.25	153.50
Year 4 PV (M)	158.52	164.62	170.89
Year 5 PV (M)	172.16	180.48	189.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,002.44	11,533.86	12,085.62
Equity Value (M)	11,728.89	12,282.53	12,857.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	9.76	9.76	9.76
Fair Value	$1,202.14	$1,258.88	$1,317.77
Upside / Downside	59.65%	67.18%	75.00%

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Orchestra Holdings Inc. (6533.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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