Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.,Ltd. (605499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,421.86 - $1,675.19$1,569.90
Multi-Stage$359.62 - $393.93$376.46
Blended Fair Value$973.18
Current Price$303.80
Upside220.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS68.52%0.00%3.941.541.151.151.070.290.130.070.000.00
YoY Growth--156.40%33.33%0.00%7.84%268.65%122.35%74.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.07%0.78%1.12%2.09%0.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,380.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,055.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,325.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)876.05547.53328.52
Cash Retained (M)2,325.022,325.022,325.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-876.05-547.53-328.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,448.981,777.491,996.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)520.01520.01520.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.793.423.84
LTM Dividend per Share3.953.953.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.793.423.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.747.377.79
WACC / Discount Rate5.45%5.45%5.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,421.86$1,569.90$1,675.19
Upside / Downside368.03%416.75%451.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,380.244,664.964,968.185,291.115,635.036,001.316,181.35
Payout Ratio46.92%55.54%64.15%72.77%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,055.222,590.743,187.193,850.244,586.025,401.185,717.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.45%5.45%5.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,433.862,456.932,480.00
Year 2 PV (M)2,812.892,866.462,920.55
Year 3 PV (M)3,192.303,283.943,377.32
Year 4 PV (M)3,572.103,709.483,850.77
Year 5 PV (M)3,952.294,143.194,341.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)171,041.40179,302.76187,880.30
Equity Value (M)187,004.84195,762.76204,850.33
Shares Outstanding (M)520.01520.01520.01
Fair Value$359.62$376.46$393.93
Upside / Downside18.37%23.92%29.67%

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