DDM Analysis: 603977.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$39.37 - $48.82	$45.75
Multi-Stage	$8.42 - $9.22	$8.82
Blended Fair Value	$27.28
Current Price	$13.06
Upside	108.91%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.03%	8.12%	0.19	0.07	0.16	0.12	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.18	0.01	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	166.28%	-55.62%	31.13%	16.35%	38.18%	27.34%	-67.72%	1,837.10%	-89.54%	5.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.46%	0.56%	1.75%	1.45%	1.32%	1.10%	0.93%	2.48%	0.07%	1.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	152.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	73.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	78.71

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.44	19.03	11.42
Cash Retained (M)	78.71	78.71	78.71
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.44	-19.03	-11.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	48.27	59.68	67.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	620.05	620.05	620.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.21	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	6.03%	6.03%	6.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$39.37	$45.75	$48.82
Upside / Downside	201.44%	250.32%	273.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	152.21	162.10	172.64	183.86	195.81	208.54	214.80
Payout Ratio	48.29%	56.63%	64.97%	73.32%	81.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	73.50	91.80	112.17	134.80	159.90	187.69	198.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.03%	6.03%	6.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	85.77	86.59	87.40
Year 2 PV (M)	97.92	99.78	101.67
Year 3 PV (M)	109.94	113.10	116.31
Year 4 PV (M)	121.84	126.53	131.35
Year 5 PV (M)	133.62	140.08	146.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,674.22	4,899.99	5,134.40
Equity Value (M)	5,223.32	5,466.06	5,717.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	620.05	620.05	620.05
Fair Value	$8.42	$8.82	$9.22
Upside / Downside	-35.50%	-32.50%	-29.39%

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Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.,Ltd. (603977.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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