DDM Analysis: 603619.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.43 - $226.20	$138.79
Multi-Stage	$26.99 - $29.52	$28.23
Blended Fair Value	$83.51
Current Price	$19.49
Upside	328.47%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	53.08%	16.12%	1.33	0.55	0.28	0.19	0.17	0.16	0.35	0.14	0.06	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	141.86%	93.41%	46.82%	15.62%	5.87%	-54.95%	144.33%	129.00%	-52.06%	-56.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.40%	2.17%	1.75%	1.30%	1.78%	1.23%	1.96%	0.38%	0.19%	0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	510.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	163.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	347.68

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	102.14	63.84	38.30
Cash Retained (M)	347.68	347.68	347.68
(-) Cash Required (M)	-102.14	-63.84	-38.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	245.54	283.84	309.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	449.02	449.02	449.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.63	0.69
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.63	0.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.91	1.00	1.05
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$54.43	$138.79	$226.20
Upside / Downside	179.26%	612.09%	1,060.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	510.71	543.91	579.26	616.91	657.01	699.72	720.71
Payout Ratio	31.92%	43.54%	55.15%	66.77%	78.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	163.03	236.81	319.48	411.91	514.99	629.74	666.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	218.70	220.77	222.84
Year 2 PV (M)	272.49	277.68	282.92
Year 3 PV (M)	324.45	333.76	343.25
Year 4 PV (M)	374.63	389.04	403.86
Year 5 PV (M)	423.07	443.51	464.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,504.25	11,011.61	11,538.39
Equity Value (M)	12,117.59	12,676.37	13,255.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	449.02	449.02	449.02
Fair Value	$26.99	$28.23	$29.52
Upside / Downside	38.46%	44.85%	51.47%

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Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group Corp., Ltd. (603619.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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