DDM Analysis: 603029.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.73 - $36.51	$22.05
Multi-Stage	$10.34 - $11.29	$10.80
Blended Fair Value	$16.43
Current Price	$17.91
Upside	-8.29%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.06%	13.08%	0.18	0.18	0.08	0.07	0.08	0.08	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.19%	108.88%	26.84%	-12.40%	-1.00%	41.19%	-22.17%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	0.98%	0.38%	0.47%	0.78%	0.69%	0.42%	0.42%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	81.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	58.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.24	10.15	6.09
Cash Retained (M)	58.44	58.44	58.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.24	-10.15	-6.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	42.20	48.29	52.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	122.06	122.06	122.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.40	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.58	0.62
WACC / Discount Rate	9.31%	9.31%	9.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$14.73	$22.05	$36.51
Upside / Downside	-17.75%	23.11%	103.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	81.20	86.48	92.10	98.09	104.46	111.25	114.59
Payout Ratio	28.04%	40.43%	52.82%	65.21%	77.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.76	34.96	48.65	63.97	81.07	100.13	106.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.31%	9.31%	9.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	31.68	31.98	32.28
Year 2 PV (M)	39.95	40.71	41.48
Year 3 PV (M)	47.61	48.97	50.36
Year 4 PV (M)	54.68	56.78	58.94
Year 5 PV (M)	61.20	64.15	67.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,026.44	1,076.02	1,127.49
Equity Value (M)	1,261.56	1,318.62	1,377.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	122.06	122.06	122.06
Fair Value	$10.34	$10.80	$11.29
Upside / Downside	-42.29%	-39.68%	-36.98%

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Shandong Swan CottonIndustrial Machinery Stock Co.,Ltd. (603029.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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