DDM Analysis: 603015.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.30 - $23.27	$8.42
Multi-Stage	$3.11 - $3.40	$3.25
Blended Fair Value	$5.83
Current Price	$11.86
Upside	-50.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.50%	1.53%	0.18	0.08	0.14	0.14	0.02	0.13	0.19	0.05	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	121.19%	-39.79%	0.64%	687.98%	-87.03%	-29.71%	247.03%	3.16%	-4.27%	-64.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	1.00%	1.76%	2.09%	0.29%	2.27%	2.40%	0.68%	0.44%	0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	46.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.28	5.80	3.48
Cash Retained (M)	15.67	15.67	15.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.28	-5.80	-3.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.39	9.87	12.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	393.03	393.03	393.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	6.79%	6.79%	6.79%
Growth Rate	4.50%	5.50%	6.50%
Fair Value	$4.30	$8.42	$23.27
Upside / Downside	-63.72%	-29.01%	96.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	46.42	48.98	51.67	54.51	57.50	60.66	62.48
Payout Ratio	66.24%	70.99%	75.75%	80.50%	85.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30.75	34.77	39.14	43.88	49.02	54.60	57.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.79%	6.79%	6.79%
Growth Rate	4.50%	5.50%	6.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	32.25	32.56	32.87
Year 2 PV (M)	33.67	34.32	34.97
Year 3 PV (M)	35.01	36.03	37.06
Year 4 PV (M)	36.28	37.69	39.14
Year 5 PV (M)	37.48	39.31	41.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,046.54	1,097.58	1,150.60
Equity Value (M)	1,221.23	1,277.48	1,335.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	393.03	393.03	393.03
Fair Value	$3.11	$3.25	$3.40
Upside / Downside	-73.80%	-72.59%	-71.34%

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Ningbo Techmation Co.,Ltd. (603015.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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