Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Inner Mongolia Junzheng Energy & Chemical Group Co.,Ltd. (601216.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.25 - $79.25$74.27
Multi-Stage$12.23 - $13.38$12.80
Blended Fair Value$43.53
Current Price$5.23
Upside732.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.50%26.36%0.340.190.180.340.390.050.220.040.040.04
YoY Growth--75.16%8.28%-47.50%-13.15%735.00%-79.32%483.17%-14.15%16.43%19.23%
Dividend Yield--6.11%5.14%3.91%7.34%7.35%1.89%5.48%0.80%0.92%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,362.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,380.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,981.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)672.45420.28252.17
Cash Retained (M)1,981.451,981.451,981.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-672.45-420.28-252.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,309.001,561.171,729.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,437.628,437.628,437.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.25$74.27$79.25
Upside / Downside650.49%1,320.02%1,415.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,362.253,580.793,813.544,061.424,325.424,606.574,744.77
Payout Ratio41.07%50.85%60.64%70.43%80.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,380.791,820.982,312.552,860.343,469.574,145.914,388.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,696.061,712.141,728.22
Year 2 PV (M)2,006.162,044.382,082.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,311.162,377.502,445.11
Year 4 PV (M)2,611.112,711.532,814.81
Year 5 PV (M)2,906.083,046.443,192.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,645.4996,072.01100,667.93
Equity Value (M)103,176.07107,963.99112,931.19
Shares Outstanding (M)8,437.628,437.628,437.62
Fair Value$12.23$12.80$13.38
Upside / Downside133.81%144.66%155.91%

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