DDM Analysis: 600916.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.52 - $50.62	$18.89
Multi-Stage	$7.30 - $7.99	$7.64
Blended Fair Value	$13.26
Current Price	$8.38
Upside	58.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	48.63%	0.00%	0.48	0.30	0.28	0.16	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.19	0.03	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	60.23%	6.69%	75.44%	130.00%	5.16%	57.61%	-77.88%	485.67%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.47%	2.71%	2.29%	1.34%	0.37%	0.92%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	432.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	326.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)	106.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	86.51	54.07	32.44
Cash Retained (M)	106.07	106.07	106.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-86.51	-54.07	-32.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)	19.57	52.01	73.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,679.51	1,679.51	1,679.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.21	0.23	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	4.25%	5.25%	6.25%
Fair Value	$9.52	$18.89	$50.62
Upside / Downside	13.64%	125.42%	504.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	432.54	455.26	479.17	504.34	530.84	558.72	575.48
Payout Ratio	75.48%	78.38%	81.29%	84.19%	87.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	326.46	356.84	389.50	424.61	462.33	502.85	532.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.51%	6.51%	6.51%
Growth Rate	4.25%	5.25%	6.25%
Year 1 PV (M)	331.85	335.03	338.22
Year 2 PV (M)	336.86	343.35	349.91
Year 3 PV (M)	341.51	351.43	361.54
Year 4 PV (M)	345.81	359.27	373.12
Year 5 PV (M)	349.77	366.87	384.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,553.90	11,069.87	11,605.83
Equity Value (M)	12,259.69	12,825.83	13,413.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,679.51	1,679.51	1,679.51
Fair Value	$7.30	$7.64	$7.99
Upside / Downside	-12.89%	-8.87%	-4.70%

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China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.,Ltd. (600916.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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