DDM Analysis: 600785.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.92 - $7.41	$6.10
Multi-Stage	$12.85 - $14.16	$13.49
Blended Fair Value	$9.80
Current Price	$13.07
Upside	-25.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.41%	-2.08%	0.32	0.23	0.14	0.16	0.20	0.18	0.11	0.23	0.11	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	38.24%	68.79%	-12.12%	-20.42%	10.00%	68.98%	-53.80%	118.59%	3.26%	-74.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.84%	1.20%	0.81%	1.42%	1.68%	1.28%	0.59%	1.10%	0.44%	0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	133.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	74.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	58.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	26.70	16.69	10.01
Cash Retained (M)	58.82	58.82	58.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-26.70	-16.69	-10.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	32.11	42.13	48.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	227.11	227.11	227.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.19	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.19	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.47	0.51	0.54
WACC / Discount Rate	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Growth Rate	-3.08%	-2.08%	-1.08%
Fair Value	$4.92	$6.10	$7.41
Upside / Downside	-62.34%	-53.34%	-43.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	133.51	130.74	128.02	125.35	122.75	120.19	123.80
Payout Ratio	55.95%	62.76%	69.57%	76.38%	83.19%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	74.70	82.05	89.06	95.74	102.11	108.18	114.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.18%	6.18%	6.18%
Growth Rate	-3.08%	-2.08%	-1.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	76.48	77.27	78.06
Year 2 PV (M)	77.39	78.99	80.62
Year 3 PV (M)	77.55	79.98	82.46
Year 4 PV (M)	77.10	80.34	83.67
Year 5 PV (M)	76.14	80.15	84.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,534.61	2,668.09	2,807.14
Equity Value (M)	2,919.28	3,064.82	3,216.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	227.11	227.11	227.11
Fair Value	$12.85	$13.49	$14.16
Upside / Downside	-1.65%	3.25%	8.35%

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Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co., Ltd. (600785.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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