Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.83 - $9.21 | $8.05 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.81 - $26.38 | $25.07 |
| Blended Fair Value | $16.56 | |
| Current Price | $17.76 | |
| Upside | -6.76% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 52.59% | -3.33% | 0.87 | 0.46 | 2.87 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.10 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 0.65 | 1.37 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 89.18% | -84.05% | 443.14% | -25.36% | 576.18% | -88.34% | 13.09% | 22.86% | -52.66% | 12.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.99% | 3.20% | 18.09% | 3.30% | 3.90% | 0.54% | 3.43% | 2.80% | 1.88% | 4.20% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 500.06 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 316.15 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 183.91 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 100.01 | 62.51 | 37.50 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 183.91 | 183.91 | 183.91 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -100.01 | -62.51 | -37.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 83.90 | 121.40 | 146.40 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 328.30 | 328.30 | 328.30 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.26 | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.22 | 1.33 | 1.41 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.18% | 6.18% | 6.18% |
| Growth Rate | -9.91% | -8.91% | -7.91% |
| Fair Value | $6.83 | $8.05 | $9.21 |
| Upside / Downside | -61.56% | -54.67% | -48.12% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 500.06 | 455.52 | 414.96 | 378.00 | 344.33 | 313.67 | 323.08 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.22% | 68.58% | 73.93% | 79.29% | 84.64% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 316.15 | 312.39 | 306.79 | 299.71 | 291.46 | 282.30 | 298.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.18% | 6.18% | 6.18% |
| Growth Rate | -9.91% | -8.91% | -7.91% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 290.99 | 294.22 | 297.45 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 266.20 | 272.14 | 278.15 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 242.24 | 250.40 | 258.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 219.44 | 229.34 | 239.58 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 197.98 | 209.21 | 220.95 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 6,599.97 | 6,974.48 | 7,365.79 |
| Equity Value (M) | 7,816.82 | 8,229.80 | 8,660.66 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 328.30 | 328.30 | 328.30 |
| Fair Value | $23.81 | $25.07 | $26.38 |
| Upside / Downside | 34.07% | 41.15% | 48.54% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 1.45% | $2.47 | 28.36% |
| SF | Stifel Financial Corp. | 1.45% | $1.86 | 30.82% |
| 0HFN.L | Analog Devices, Inc. | 1.44% | $3.90 | 84.88% |
| HAYN | Haynes International, Inc. | 1.44% | $0.88 | 30.16% |
| 0I58.L | Cummins Inc. | 1.43% | $7.42 | 38.53% |
| 0HRJ.L | CSX Corporation | 1.42% | $0.51 | 33.32% |
| OLED | Universal Display Corporation | 1.42% | $1.73 | 37.24% |
| BBW | Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.86 | 19.50% |
| LBC | Luther Burbank Corporation | 1.41% | $0.13 | 17.07% |
| SNDR | Schneider National, Inc. | 1.41% | $0.38 | 58.72% |
| 0R13.L | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | 1.40% | $1.16 | 36.55% |
| COHN | Cohen & Company Inc. | 1.40% | $0.35 | 48.05% |
| HLI | Houlihan Lokey, Inc. | 1.40% | $2.48 | 39.81% |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | 1.40% | $1.54 | 44.05% |
| CXT | Crane NXT, Co. | 1.39% | $0.66 | 24.82% |
| ESBA | Empire State Realty OP, L.P. | 1.39% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| MMS | Maximus, Inc. | 1.39% | $1.21 | 21.54% |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | 1.39% | $1.70 | 34.98% |
| ATEN | A10 Networks, Inc. | 1.38% | $0.24 | 34.61% |
| HYAC | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III | 1.38% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corporation | 1.38% | $0.36 | 18.11% |
| MCY | Mercury General Corporation | 1.38% | $1.27 | 16.00% |
| ACU | Acme United Corporation | 1.37% | $0.55 | 28.31% |
| DE | Deere & Company | 1.36% | $6.34 | 34.22% |
| HYAC-UN | Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 | 1.36% | $0.16 | 37.41% |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | 1.36% | $2.56 | 52.52% |
| 0HIN.L | Assurant, Inc. | 1.35% | $3.22 | 19.47% |
| AL | Air Lease Corporation | 1.35% | $0.86 | 9.51% |
| BGCP | BGC Partners, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.06 | 11.88% |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.09 | 49.94% |
| HUM | Humana Inc. | 1.34% | $3.55 | 33.23% |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel, Inc. | 1.34% | $0.59 | 50.16% |
| 0K9L.L | Nucor Corporation | 1.33% | $2.22 | 31.04% |
| BY | Byline Bancorp, Inc. | 1.33% | $0.39 | 13.97% |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific Corporation | 1.33% | $1.09 | 35.19% |
| OPOF | Old Point Financial Corporation | 1.33% | $0.56 | 32.91% |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | 1.33% | $2.50 | 27.85% |
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 1.32% | $0.71 | 21.15% |
| VLEOX | Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class | 1.32% | $0.79 | 56.29% |
| 0IW7.L | Global Payments Inc. | 1.31% | $1.01 | 13.82% |
| APO | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | 1.31% | $1.92 | 27.59% |
| EMP | Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66 | 1.31% | $0.27 | 6.72% |
| NDSN | Nordson Corporation | 1.31% | $3.15 | 36.67% |
| ROK | Rockwell Automation, Inc. | 1.31% | $5.23 | 68.01% |
| UMBF | UMB Financial Corporation | 1.31% | $1.52 | 18.87% |
| 0L3I.L | The Charles Schwab Corporation | 1.30% | $1.29 | 28.42% |
| 0R2X.L | Corning Incorporated | 1.30% | $1.15 | 72.69% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 1.30% | $1.13 | 24.20% |
| GGG | Graco Inc. | 1.30% | $1.07 | 36.31% |
| HES | Hess Corporation | 1.30% | $1.94 | 26.90% |