DDM Analysis: 600629.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.09 - $4.89	$3.91
Multi-Stage	$4.13 - $4.52	$4.32
Blended Fair Value	$4.12
Current Price	$28.69
Upside	-85.64%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.11%	-1.88%	0.15	0.03	0.12	0.05	0.13	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	432.80%	-76.69%	124.92%	-58.32%	0.11%	23.41%	312.38%	165.18%	47.91%	-96.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.85%	0.51%	2.25%	0.76%	2.49%	2.33%	1.29%	0.28%	0.08%	0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	297.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	124.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	173.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	59.57	37.23	22.34
Cash Retained (M)	173.86	173.86	173.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-59.57	-37.23	-22.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	114.29	136.63	151.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	986.72	986.72	986.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	9.00%	9.00%	9.00%
Growth Rate	1.11%	2.11%	3.11%
Fair Value	$3.09	$3.91	$4.89
Upside / Downside	-89.22%	-86.36%	-82.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	297.86	304.14	310.54	317.08	323.76	330.58	340.50
Payout Ratio	41.63%	51.30%	60.98%	70.65%	80.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	124.00	156.03	189.36	224.03	260.07	297.53	314.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.00%	9.00%	9.00%
Growth Rate	1.11%	2.11%	3.11%
Year 1 PV (M)	141.75	143.15	144.56
Year 2 PV (M)	156.28	159.39	162.53
Year 3 PV (M)	167.97	173.00	178.13
Year 4 PV (M)	177.14	184.25	191.58
Year 5 PV (M)	184.11	193.39	203.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,249.54	3,413.45	3,583.91
Equity Value (M)	4,076.79	4,266.64	4,463.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	986.72	986.72	986.72
Fair Value	$4.13	$4.32	$4.52
Upside / Downside	-85.60%	-84.93%	-84.23%

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Arcplus Group PLC (600629.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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