Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hengli Petrochemical Co.,Ltd. (600346.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.77 - $196.44$184.09
Multi-Stage$31.65 - $34.58$33.09
Blended Fair Value$108.59
Current Price$17.14
Upside533.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.74%62.22%1.340.821.721.421.130.880.550.250.050.19
YoY Growth--63.55%-52.37%21.43%24.92%28.70%60.19%118.97%414.74%-74.68%1,715.55%
Dividend Yield--8.72%5.74%10.62%6.81%3.87%7.06%4.06%2.40%0.81%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,961.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,945.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,392.29870.18522.11
Cash Retained (M)16.3316.3316.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,392.29-870.18-522.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,375.96-853.85-505.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,047.937,047.937,047.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$99.77$184.09$196.44
Upside / Downside482.07%974.03%1,046.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,961.477,413.967,895.878,409.108,955.699,537.819,823.95
Payout Ratio99.77%97.81%95.86%93.91%91.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,945.147,251.777,568.927,896.678,235.048,584.039,087.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,755.676,819.706,883.74
Year 2 PV (M)6,568.756,693.866,820.16
Year 3 PV (M)6,384.356,567.626,754.36
Year 4 PV (M)6,202.446,440.966,686.31
Year 5 PV (M)6,022.996,313.916,615.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)191,150.60200,383.24209,969.24
Equity Value (M)223,084.78233,219.29243,729.76
Shares Outstanding (M)7,047.937,047.937,047.93
Fair Value$31.65$33.09$34.58
Upside / Downside84.67%93.06%101.76%

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