DDM Analysis: 600316.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.55 - $0.88	$0.70
Multi-Stage	$0.70 - $0.76	$0.73
Blended Fair Value	$0.72
Current Price	$37.90
Upside	-98.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.56%	-15.57%	0.01	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	0.11	0.13	0.05	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-74.58%	-12.55%	0.22%	85.82%	201.90%	-89.36%	-9.82%	137.53%	-28.19%	-9.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.04%	0.32%	0.26%	0.25%	0.11%	0.10%	0.64%	0.92%	0.25%	0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	36.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	24.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.38	4.61	2.77
Cash Retained (M)	24.70	24.70	24.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.38	-4.61	-2.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.32	20.09	21.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	717.27	717.27	717.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.10%	9.10%	9.10%
Growth Rate	1.51%	2.51%	3.51%
Fair Value	$0.55	$0.70	$0.88
Upside / Downside	-98.55%	-98.15%	-97.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	36.89	37.82	38.77	39.74	40.74	41.76	43.01
Payout Ratio	33.05%	44.44%	55.83%	67.22%	78.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.19	16.80	21.64	26.71	32.02	37.59	39.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.10%	9.10%	9.10%
Growth Rate	1.51%	2.51%	3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)	15.25	15.40	15.55
Year 2 PV (M)	17.83	18.18	18.54
Year 3 PV (M)	19.98	20.57	21.18
Year 4 PV (M)	21.74	22.61	23.50
Year 5 PV (M)	23.16	24.32	25.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	402.06	422.26	443.26
Equity Value (M)	500.01	523.34	547.56
Shares Outstanding (M)	717.27	717.27	717.27
Fair Value	$0.70	$0.73	$0.76
Upside / Downside	-98.16%	-98.07%	-97.99%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co., Ltd. (600316.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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