DDM Analysis: 3978.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.98 - $7.65	$6.22
Multi-Stage	$10.81 - $11.91	$11.35
Blended Fair Value	$8.79
Current Price	$4.80
Upside	83.03%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.13	0.29	0.00	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-35.90%	0.00%	-100.00%	-54.55%	38,294.42%	-98.14%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.92%	0.00%	0.00%	17.25%	2.78%	0.00%	6.14%	14.51%	0.04%	2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	414.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	111.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	302.08

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	82.81	51.75	31.05
Cash Retained (M)	302.08	302.08	302.08
(-) Cash Required (M)	-82.81	-51.75	-31.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	219.28	250.33	271.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	757.95	757.95	757.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.33	0.36
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.33	0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.44	0.48	0.51
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$4.98	$6.22	$7.65
Upside / Downside	3.66%	29.60%	59.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	414.04	409.89	405.80	401.74	397.72	393.74	405.56
Payout Ratio	27.04%	39.63%	52.22%	64.82%	77.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	111.95	162.45	211.92	260.39	307.87	354.37	375.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	150.84	152.38	153.92
Year 2 PV (M)	182.72	186.47	190.25
Year 3 PV (M)	208.47	214.92	221.49
Year 4 PV (M)	228.87	238.35	248.13
Year 5 PV (M)	244.62	257.35	270.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,179.38	7,553.23	7,942.49
Equity Value (M)	8,194.89	8,602.70	9,026.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	757.95	757.95	757.95
Fair Value	$10.81	$11.35	$11.91
Upside / Downside	125.25%	136.46%	148.12%

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China Beststudy Education Group (3978.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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