DDM Analysis: 3898.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$260.36 - $550.67	$516.06
Multi-Stage	$83.26 - $91.17	$87.14
Blended Fair Value	$301.60
Current Price	$28.83
Upside	946.13%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.42%	10.59%	0.81	0.58	0.46	0.47	0.38	0.39	0.40	0.39	0.42	0.36
YoY Growth	-	-	39.29%	25.10%	-1.98%	23.44%	-2.85%	-0.55%	2.37%	-6.96%	16.70%	20.88%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.69%	2.31%	1.55%	1.90%	1.57%	1.88%	1.05%	1.27%	1.14%	0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,867.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,128.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,738.47

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	773.45	483.41	290.04
Cash Retained (M)	2,738.47	2,738.47	2,738.47
(-) Cash Required (M)	-773.45	-483.41	-290.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,965.02	2,255.06	2,448.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,396.66	1,396.66	1,396.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.41	1.61	1.75
LTM Dividend per Share	0.81	0.81	0.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.41	1.61	1.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.22	2.42	2.56
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$260.36	$516.06	$550.67
Upside / Downside	803.08%	1,690.01%	1,810.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,867.25	4,118.62	4,386.33	4,671.44	4,975.08	5,298.46	5,457.42
Payout Ratio	29.19%	41.35%	53.51%	65.68%	77.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,128.78	1,703.07	2,347.25	3,067.98	3,872.49	4,768.62	5,048.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,585.63	1,600.66	1,615.69
Year 2 PV (M)	2,034.70	2,073.46	2,112.58
Year 3 PV (M)	2,476.08	2,547.16	2,619.59
Year 4 PV (M)	2,909.87	3,021.78	3,136.88
Year 5 PV (M)	3,336.16	3,497.30	3,664.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	103,946.84	108,967.52	114,180.34
Equity Value (M)	116,289.31	121,707.88	127,329.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,396.66	1,396.66	1,396.66
Fair Value	$83.26	$87.14	$91.17
Upside / Downside	188.81%	202.26%	216.22%

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Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. (3898.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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