DDM Analysis: 3318.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.92 - $1.47	$1.17
Multi-Stage	$2.37 - $2.62	$2.49
Blended Fair Value	$1.83
Current Price	$1.59
Upside	15.20%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	52.94%	0.00%	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	802.76%	4.83%	31.47%	-28.35%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.37%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.43%	0.32%	0.15%	0.19%	0.18%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	95.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	77.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.07	11.92	7.15
Cash Retained (M)	77.91	77.91	77.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.07	-11.92	-7.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.84	65.99	70.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,080.26	1,080.26	1,080.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	5.68%	5.68%	5.68%
Growth Rate	-1.86%	-0.86%	0.14%
Fair Value	$0.92	$1.17	$1.47
Upside / Downside	-42.22%	-26.41%	-7.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	95.34	94.52	93.71	92.90	92.11	91.31	94.05
Payout Ratio	18.28%	32.62%	46.97%	61.31%	75.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.43	30.83	44.01	56.96	69.68	82.18	87.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.68%	5.68%	5.68%
Growth Rate	-1.86%	-0.86%	0.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	28.88	29.18	29.47
Year 2 PV (M)	38.61	39.40	40.20
Year 3 PV (M)	46.81	48.25	49.73
Year 4 PV (M)	53.64	55.86	58.15
Year 5 PV (M)	59.25	62.33	65.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,336.71	2,458.21	2,584.71
Equity Value (M)	2,563.91	2,693.24	2,827.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,080.26	1,080.26	1,080.26
Fair Value	$2.37	$2.49	$2.62
Upside / Downside	49.27%	56.80%	64.64%

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China Boton Group Company Limited (3318.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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