DDM Analysis: 301133.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.49 - $24.06	$14.31
Multi-Stage	$6.62 - $7.23	$6.92
Blended Fair Value	$10.61
Current Price	$29.69
Upside	-64.25%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	17.30%	0.00%	0.21	0.15	0.11	0.00	0.14	0.09	0.00	0.24	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	37.17%	36.79%	2,500.28%	-96.96%	49.91%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.87%	0.63%	0.44%	0.02%	0.24%	0.16%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	45.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	13.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)	32.21

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.07	5.67	3.40
Cash Retained (M)	32.21	32.21	32.21
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.07	-5.67	-3.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	23.15	26.55	28.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	107.91	107.91	107.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.37	0.39
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.49	$14.31	$24.06
Upside / Downside	-68.04%	-51.81%	-18.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	45.33	48.28	51.41	54.76	58.31	62.10	63.97
Payout Ratio	28.93%	41.15%	53.36%	65.57%	77.79%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	13.12	19.86	27.43	35.90	45.36	55.89	59.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.24%	9.24%	9.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	18.01	18.18	18.36
Year 2 PV (M)	22.56	22.99	23.42
Year 3 PV (M)	26.78	27.55	28.33
Year 4 PV (M)	30.68	31.86	33.07
Year 5 PV (M)	34.28	35.94	37.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	581.95	610.06	639.24
Equity Value (M)	714.26	746.57	780.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	107.91	107.91	107.91
Fair Value	$6.62	$6.92	$7.23
Upside / Downside	-77.71%	-76.70%	-75.65%

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Guangzhou Jinzhong Auto Parts Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (301133.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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