DDM Analysis: 300916.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.63 - $39.74	$25.58
Multi-Stage	$75.85 - $83.79	$79.74
Blended Fair Value	$52.66
Current Price	$38.68
Upside	36.14%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.32	0.33	0.13	0.09	0.25	0.00	0.10	0.01	0.13	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-3.76%	150.00%	50.00%	-64.52%	0.00%	-100.00%	898.27%	-91.96%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.05%	1.63%	0.46%	0.39%	1.02%	0.00%	0.23%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	136.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	58.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)	78.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.29	17.06	10.23
Cash Retained (M)	78.07	78.07	78.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.29	-17.06	-10.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	50.78	61.01	67.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	144.58	144.58	144.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.42	0.47
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.35	0.42	0.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.76	0.83	0.87
WACC / Discount Rate	2.20%	2.20%	2.20%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$17.63	$25.58	$39.74
Upside / Downside	-54.42%	-33.88%	2.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	136.46	135.09	133.74	132.40	131.08	129.77	133.66
Payout Ratio	42.79%	52.23%	61.67%	71.12%	80.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	58.39	70.56	82.48	94.16	105.60	116.79	123.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	2.20%	2.20%	2.20%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	68.35	69.04	69.74
Year 2 PV (M)	77.39	78.98	80.58
Year 3 PV (M)	85.57	88.22	90.92
Year 4 PV (M)	92.95	96.81	100.78
Year 5 PV (M)	99.58	104.77	110.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,542.03	11,090.98	11,662.56
Equity Value (M)	10,965.88	11,528.80	12,114.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	144.58	144.58	144.58
Fair Value	$75.85	$79.74	$83.79
Upside / Downside	96.08%	106.15%	116.63%

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Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co., Ltd. (300916.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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