Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenglan Technology Co., Ltd. (300843.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.39 - $13.81$10.80
Multi-Stage$8.79 - $9.61$9.19
Blended Fair Value$9.99
Current Price$56.24
Upside-82.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS138.49%0.00%0.110.060.070.140.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--72.46%-6.04%-49.79%4,266.93%117.12%-7.20%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.29%0.32%0.64%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)117.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.5914.758.85
Cash Retained (M)95.2695.2695.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.59-14.75-8.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.6680.5186.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)164.49164.49164.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Fair Value$8.39$10.80$13.81
Upside / Downside-85.09%-80.80%-75.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)117.97122.63127.47132.51137.74143.19147.48
Payout Ratio19.25%33.40%47.55%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.7140.9660.6281.76104.48128.87136.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate2.95%3.95%4.95%
Year 1 PV (M)36.8837.2437.60
Year 2 PV (M)49.1450.1051.07
Year 3 PV (M)59.6861.4463.23
Year 4 PV (M)68.6771.3874.17
Year 5 PV (M)76.2780.0483.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,154.601,211.781,271.19
Equity Value (M)1,445.251,511.981,581.23
Shares Outstanding (M)164.49164.49164.49
Fair Value$8.79$9.19$9.61
Upside / Downside-84.38%-83.66%-82.91%

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