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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Zhengdan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (300641.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.11 - $391.91$367.27
Multi-Stage$60.25 - $65.96$63.05
Blended Fair Value$215.16
Current Price$21.70
Upside891.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.60%31.28%0.430.060.050.030.020.040.090.080.020.13
YoY Growth--672.48%20.52%69.72%48.36%-50.00%-57.80%6.67%325.41%-85.49%366.99%
Dividend Yield--1.65%1.24%0.84%0.45%0.27%0.81%1.37%0.93%0.21%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,039.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)367.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.98129.9977.99
Cash Retained (M)672.03672.03672.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.98-129.99-77.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)464.05542.05594.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)527.70527.70527.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.031.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.031.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.721.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$194.11$367.27$391.91
Upside / Downside794.50%1,592.51%1,706.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,039.901,107.491,179.481,256.141,337.791,424.751,467.49
Payout Ratio35.38%46.30%57.23%68.15%79.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)367.87512.77674.96856.061,057.861,282.281,357.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)477.60482.12486.65
Year 2 PV (M)585.53596.69607.94
Year 3 PV (M)691.70711.56731.79
Year 4 PV (M)796.12826.74858.23
Year 5 PV (M)898.81942.22987.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,344.7329,713.7931,135.25
Equity Value (M)31,794.4933,273.1234,807.16
Shares Outstanding (M)527.70527.70527.70
Fair Value$60.25$63.05$65.96
Upside / Downside177.65%190.57%203.96%

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