DDM Analysis: 2838.TW

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$68.54 - $247.82	$217.27
Multi-Stage	$31.45 - $34.40	$32.90
Blended Fair Value	$125.08
Current Price	$17.95
Upside	596.84%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.44%	64.08%	0.29	0.19	0.23	0.11	0.18	0.11	0.26	0.27	0.24	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	51.02%	-13.84%	102.98%	-37.54%	60.09%	-57.63%	-3.37%	12.50%	63.53%	7,010.49%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.85%	1.45%	1.71%	0.84%	2.26%	1.67%	3.90%	4.66%	4.27%	2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,391.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,950.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,440.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,078.35	673.97	404.38
Cash Retained (M)	3,440.91	3,440.91	3,440.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,078.35	-673.97	-404.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,362.56	2,766.94	3,036.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,326.87	4,326.87	4,326.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.64	0.70
LTM Dividend per Share	0.45	0.45	0.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.64	0.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.00	1.09	1.15
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$68.54	$217.27	$247.82
Upside / Downside	281.84%	1,110.41%	1,280.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,391.73	5,742.20	6,115.44	6,512.94	6,936.28	7,387.14	7,608.76
Payout Ratio	36.18%	46.95%	57.71%	68.47%	79.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,950.83	2,695.70	3,529.16	4,459.59	5,496.06	6,648.43	7,038.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,494.88	2,518.53	2,542.18
Year 2 PV (M)	3,022.94	3,080.52	3,138.64
Year 3 PV (M)	3,535.35	3,636.84	3,740.25
Year 4 PV (M)	4,032.44	4,187.52	4,347.03
Year 5 PV (M)	4,514.56	4,732.61	4,959.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	118,458.44	124,180.03	130,120.60
Equity Value (M)	136,058.62	142,336.06	148,847.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,326.87	4,326.87	4,326.87
Fair Value	$31.45	$32.90	$34.40
Upside / Downside	75.18%	83.26%	91.65%

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Sector

Union Bank of Taiwan (2838.TW)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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