DDM Analysis: 2610.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.36 - $21.80	$16.36
Multi-Stage	$67.87 - $74.95	$71.34
Blended Fair Value	$43.85
Current Price	$4.01
Upside	993.54%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.98%	0.99%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	539.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	376.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)	162.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	107.87	67.42	40.45
Cash Retained (M)	162.96	162.96	162.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-107.87	-67.42	-40.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)	55.09	95.54	122.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	566.38	566.38	566.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.17	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.66	0.66	0.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.17	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.76	0.83	0.88
WACC / Discount Rate	4.04%	4.04%	4.04%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$12.36	$16.36	$21.80
Upside / Downside	208.18%	308.07%	443.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	539.33	533.94	528.60	523.31	518.08	512.90	528.28
Payout Ratio	69.79%	73.83%	77.87%	81.91%	85.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	376.37	394.20	411.62	428.67	445.32	461.61	488.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.04%	4.04%	4.04%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	375.06	378.88	382.71
Year 2 PV (M)	372.63	380.27	387.99
Year 3 PV (M)	369.21	380.63	392.28
Year 4 PV (M)	364.94	380.07	395.66
Year 5 PV (M)	359.92	378.66	398.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	36,600.08	38,505.93	40,490.36
Equity Value (M)	38,441.83	40,404.44	42,447.17
Shares Outstanding (M)	566.38	566.38	566.38
Fair Value	$67.87	$71.34	$74.95
Upside / Downside	1,592.60%	1,679.01%	1,768.96%

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Nanshan Aluminium Intrnatnl Holdings Ltd (2610.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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