DDM Analysis: 2018.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$16.96 - $24.44	$20.60
Multi-Stage	$30.86 - $34.02	$32.41
Blended Fair Value	$26.51
Current Price	$37.13
Upside	-28.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-41.65%	-20.69%	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.34	0.09	1.31	1.86	1.42	1.12	0.80
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.52%	0.00%	-100.00%	277.55%	-93.02%	-29.83%	31.24%	26.48%	39.88%	-10.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.25%	0.53%	0.00%	1.37%	0.25%	2.15%	4.66%	1.14%	1.78%	1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,825.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	103.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,721.55

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	565.03	353.14	211.88
Cash Retained (M)	2,721.55	2,721.55	2,721.55
(-) Cash Required (M)	-565.03	-353.14	-211.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,156.52	2,368.41	2,509.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,172.70	1,172.70	1,172.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.84	2.02	2.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.84	2.02	2.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.93	2.11	2.23
WACC / Discount Rate	8.10%	8.10%	8.10%
Growth Rate	-2.94%	-1.94%	-0.94%
Fair Value	$16.96	$20.60	$24.44
Upside / Downside	-54.33%	-44.51%	-34.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,825.13	2,770.41	2,716.75	2,664.12	2,612.52	2,561.91	2,638.77
Payout Ratio	3.67%	20.93%	38.20%	55.47%	72.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	103.58	579.94	1,037.79	1,477.70	1,900.17	2,305.72	2,440.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.10%	8.10%	8.10%
Growth Rate	-2.94%	-1.94%	-0.94%
Year 1 PV (M)	531.03	536.50	541.98
Year 2 PV (M)	870.15	888.18	906.38
Year 3 PV (M)	1,134.52	1,169.95	1,206.11
Year 4 PV (M)	1,335.86	1,391.77	1,449.41
Year 5 PV (M)	1,484.29	1,562.34	1,643.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	30,838.52	32,460.17	34,149.34
Equity Value (M)	36,194.37	38,008.91	39,896.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,172.70	1,172.70	1,172.70
Fair Value	$30.86	$32.41	$34.02
Upside / Downside	-16.88%	-12.71%	-8.37%

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Ticker ⇵	Company ⇵	Dividend Yield % ▼	Dividend Per Share ⇵	Payout Ratio % ⇵
GATX	GATX Corporation	1.45%	$2.47	28.36%
SF	Stifel Financial Corp.	1.45%	$1.86	30.82%
0HFN.L	Analog Devices, Inc.	1.44%	$3.90	84.88%
HAYN	Haynes International, Inc.	1.44%	$0.88	30.16%
0I58.L	Cummins Inc.	1.43%	$7.42	38.53%
0HRJ.L	CSX Corporation	1.42%	$0.51	33.32%
OLED	Universal Display Corporation	1.42%	$1.73	37.24%
BBW	Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.	1.41%	$0.86	19.50%
LBC	Luther Burbank Corporation	1.41%	$0.13	17.07%
SNDR	Schneider National, Inc.	1.41%	$0.38	58.72%
0R13.L	Church & Dwight Co., Inc.	1.40%	$1.16	36.55%
COHN	Cohen & Company Inc.	1.40%	$0.35	48.05%
HLI	Houlihan Lokey, Inc.	1.40%	$2.48	39.81%
PATK	Patrick Industries, Inc.	1.40%	$1.54	44.05%
CXT	Crane NXT, Co.	1.39%	$0.66	24.82%
ESBA	Empire State Realty OP, L.P.	1.39%	$0.09	49.94%
MMS	Maximus, Inc.	1.39%	$1.21	21.54%
WYNN	Wynn Resorts, Limited	1.39%	$1.70	34.98%
ATEN	A10 Networks, Inc.	1.38%	$0.24	34.61%
HYAC	Haymaker Acquisition Corp. III	1.38%	$0.16	37.41%
ISTR	Investar Holding Corporation	1.38%	$0.36	18.11%
MCY	Mercury General Corporation	1.38%	$1.27	16.00%
ACU	Acme United Corporation	1.37%	$0.55	28.31%
DE	Deere & Company	1.36%	$6.34	34.22%
HYAC-UN	Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4	1.36%	$0.16	37.41%
RTX	RTX Corporation	1.36%	$2.56	52.52%
0HIN.L	Assurant, Inc.	1.35%	$3.22	19.47%
AL	Air Lease Corporation	1.35%	$0.86	9.51%
BGCP	BGC Partners, Inc.	1.34%	$0.06	11.88%
ESRT	Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.	1.34%	$0.09	49.94%
HUM	Humana Inc.	1.34%	$3.55	33.23%
ZEUS	Olympic Steel, Inc.	1.34%	$0.59	50.16%
0K9L.L	Nucor Corporation	1.33%	$2.22	31.04%
BY	Byline Bancorp, Inc.	1.33%	$0.39	13.97%
LPX	Louisiana-Pacific Corporation	1.33%	$1.09	35.19%
OPOF	Old Point Financial Corporation	1.33%	$0.56	32.91%
WSM	Williams-Sonoma, Inc.	1.33%	$2.50	27.85%
RUSHA	Rush Enterprises, Inc.	1.32%	$0.71	21.15%
VLEOX	Value Line Small Cap Opportunities Fund, Inc. Investor Class	1.32%	$0.79	56.29%
0IW7.L	Global Payments Inc.	1.31%	$1.01	13.82%
APO	Apollo Global Management, Inc.	1.31%	$1.92	27.59%
EMP	Entergy Mississippi, Inc. 1M BD 66	1.31%	$0.27	6.72%
NDSN	Nordson Corporation	1.31%	$3.15	36.67%
ROK	Rockwell Automation, Inc.	1.31%	$5.23	68.01%
UMBF	UMB Financial Corporation	1.31%	$1.52	18.87%
0L3I.L	The Charles Schwab Corporation	1.30%	$1.29	28.42%
0R2X.L	Corning Incorporated	1.30%	$1.15	72.69%
EBAY	eBay Inc.	1.30%	$1.13	24.20%
GGG	Graco Inc.	1.30%	$1.07	36.31%
HES	Hess Corporation	1.30%	$1.94	26.90%

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AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. (2018.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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