DDM Analysis: 0780.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.72 - $11.18	$9.40
Multi-Stage	$12.57 - $13.82	$13.18
Blended Fair Value	$11.29
Current Price	$17.86
Upside	-36.77%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.13	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,454.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	311.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,143.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	490.95	306.85	184.11
Cash Retained (M)	2,143.07	2,143.07	2,143.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-490.95	-306.85	-184.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,652.11	1,836.22	1,958.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,310.27	2,310.27	2,310.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.72	0.79	0.85
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.72	0.79	0.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.85	0.93	0.98
WACC / Discount Rate	8.79%	8.79%	8.79%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$7.72	$9.40	$11.18
Upside / Downside	-56.77%	-47.35%	-37.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,454.77	2,430.22	2,405.92	2,381.86	2,358.04	2,334.46	2,404.49
Payout Ratio	12.70%	28.16%	43.62%	59.08%	74.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	311.70	684.31	1,049.43	1,407.18	1,757.67	2,101.01	2,224.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.79%	8.79%	8.79%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	622.67	629.02	635.38
Year 2 PV (M)	868.90	886.72	904.73
Year 3 PV (M)	1,060.17	1,092.95	1,126.41
Year 4 PV (M)	1,204.95	1,254.89	1,306.37
Year 5 PV (M)	1,310.60	1,378.84	1,449.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	23,968.68	25,216.78	26,516.34
Equity Value (M)	29,035.96	30,459.21	31,939.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,310.27	2,310.27	2,310.27
Fair Value	$12.57	$13.18	$13.82
Upside / Downside	-29.63%	-26.18%	-22.59%

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (0780.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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