DDM Analysis: 002825.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.42 - $30.89	$17.56
Multi-Stage	$7.80 - $8.52	$8.15
Blended Fair Value	$12.86
Current Price	$9.73
Upside	32.14%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	29.94%	8.60%	0.15	0.22	0.13	0.21	0.09	0.04	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-31.54%	70.35%	-36.40%	138.27%	109.63%	39.72%	-50.05%	0.00%	-100.00%	-17.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.82%	2.98%	1.36%	2.22%	1.15%	0.56%	0.34%	0.68%	0.00%	1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	162.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	44.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	118.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	32.57	20.35	12.21
Cash Retained (M)	118.56	118.56	118.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-32.57	-20.35	-12.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	85.99	98.20	106.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	339.77	339.77	339.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.38	0.42	0.44
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$11.42	$17.56	$30.89
Upside / Downside	17.34%	80.51%	217.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	162.84	173.42	184.70	196.70	209.49	223.10	229.80
Payout Ratio	27.19%	39.75%	52.32%	64.88%	77.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	44.28	68.94	96.63	127.61	162.22	200.79	212.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	62.63	63.23	63.82
Year 2 PV (M)	79.75	81.26	82.80
Year 3 PV (M)	95.68	98.43	101.22
Year 4 PV (M)	110.49	114.74	119.11
Year 5 PV (M)	124.25	130.25	136.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,176.58	2,281.71	2,390.86
Equity Value (M)	2,649.37	2,769.61	2,894.29
Shares Outstanding (M)	339.77	339.77	339.77
Fair Value	$7.80	$8.15	$8.52
Upside / Downside	-19.86%	-16.22%	-12.45%

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Shanghai NAR Industrial Co., Ltd (002825.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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