DDM Analysis: 002511.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.45 - $4.15	$3.19
Multi-Stage	$2.84 - $3.11	$2.97
Blended Fair Value	$3.08
Current Price	$8.24
Upside	-62.64%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	29.38%	2.24%	0.08	0.06	0.10	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	32.69%	-36.81%	-0.10%	31.35%	229.50%	-60.71%	49.85%	100.56%	520.60%	-95.30%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	0.74%	0.82%	0.83%	0.29%	0.14%	0.60%	0.45%	0.27%	0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	253.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	229.51

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	50.76	31.72	19.03
Cash Retained (M)	229.51	229.51	229.51
(-) Cash Required (M)	-50.76	-31.72	-19.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	178.75	197.78	210.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,295.71	1,295.71	1,295.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.15	0.16
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.15	0.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.16	0.17	0.18
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	2.20%	3.20%	4.20%
Fair Value	$2.45	$3.19	$4.15
Upside / Downside	-70.32%	-61.31%	-49.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	253.78	261.90	270.29	278.94	287.87	297.08	305.99
Payout Ratio	9.57%	25.65%	41.74%	57.83%	73.91%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.28	67.18	112.82	161.30	212.77	267.37	283.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.75%	8.75%	8.75%
Growth Rate	2.20%	3.20%	4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	61.18	61.78	62.38
Year 2 PV (M)	93.55	95.39	97.25
Year 3 PV (M)	121.81	125.42	129.10
Year 4 PV (M)	146.32	152.13	158.11
Year 5 PV (M)	167.44	175.79	184.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,083.34	3,237.17	3,397.08
Equity Value (M)	3,673.64	3,847.68	4,028.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,295.71	1,295.71	1,295.71
Fair Value	$2.84	$2.97	$3.11
Upside / Downside	-65.59%	-63.96%	-62.27%

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C&S Paper Co.,Ltd (002511.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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