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Definitive Analysis

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Cheng De Lolo Company Limited (000848.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.73 - $84.69$32.82
Multi-Stage$16.31 - $17.86$17.07
Blended Fair Value$24.94
Current Price$8.43
Upside195.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.61%11.65%0.410.300.000.260.190.380.470.380.150.10
YoY Growth--38.19%439,658.07%-99.97%39.53%-49.85%-20.28%25.07%160.00%50.00%-28.57%
Dividend Yield--4.79%3.51%0.00%3.22%2.99%5.87%5.66%4.58%1.45%1.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)630.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)347.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)282.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.1578.8447.31
Cash Retained (M)282.88282.88282.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.15-78.84-47.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)156.73204.04235.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,034.641,034.641,034.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Fair Value$18.73$32.82$84.69
Upside / Downside122.21%289.28%904.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)630.76661.67694.09728.10763.77801.20825.23
Payout Ratio55.15%62.12%69.09%76.06%83.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)347.88411.04479.55553.80634.16721.08763.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate3.90%4.90%5.90%
Year 1 PV (M)381.90385.57389.25
Year 2 PV (M)413.96421.97430.05
Year 3 PV (M)444.16457.11470.30
Year 4 PV (M)472.55491.01510.00
Year 5 PV (M)499.22523.71549.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,659.1015,378.2616,125.36
Equity Value (M)16,870.8917,657.6218,474.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,034.641,034.641,034.64
Fair Value$16.31$17.07$17.86
Upside / Downside93.43%102.45%111.81%

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