DDM Analysis: 000783.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.65 - $129.52	$49.37
Multi-Stage	$16.73 - $18.31	$17.50
Blended Fair Value	$33.44
Current Price	$8.30
Upside	302.88%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	16.74%	12.51%	0.39	0.37	0.55	0.41	0.37	0.18	0.45	0.36	0.47	0.20
YoY Growth	-	-	6.10%	-32.94%	34.03%	11.38%	104.15%	-60.25%	26.66%	-23.52%	132.74%	67.22%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.13%	6.50%	9.81%	6.54%	5.18%	2.81%	5.86%	4.92%	4.76%	1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,773.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,659.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,114.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	754.73	471.71	283.02
Cash Retained (M)	2,114.12	2,114.12	2,114.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-754.73	-471.71	-283.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,359.38	1,642.41	1,831.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,748.41	5,748.41	5,748.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.29	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.29	0.29	0.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.29	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.53	0.57	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	4.64%	5.64%	6.64%
Fair Value	$24.65	$49.37	$129.52
Upside / Downside	197.05%	494.88%	1,460.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,773.66	3,986.66	4,211.67	4,449.39	4,700.53	4,965.84	5,114.81
Payout Ratio	43.98%	53.18%	62.39%	71.59%	80.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,659.54	2,120.17	2,627.50	3,185.35	3,797.81	4,469.25	4,731.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	4.64%	5.64%	6.64%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,965.04	1,983.81	2,002.59
Year 2 PV (M)	2,257.06	2,300.41	2,344.16
Year 3 PV (M)	2,536.05	2,609.46	2,684.26
Year 4 PV (M)	2,802.43	2,911.09	3,022.89
Year 5 PV (M)	3,056.58	3,205.45	3,360.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	83,539.44	87,608.05	91,833.67
Equity Value (M)	96,156.61	100,618.28	105,247.64
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,748.41	5,748.41	5,748.41
Fair Value	$16.73	$17.50	$18.31
Upside / Downside	101.54%	110.89%	120.59%

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Changjiang Securities Company Limited (000783.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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