DDM Analysis: 000728.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$38.32 - $123.76	$115.98
Multi-Stage	$16.60 - $18.15	$17.36
Blended Fair Value	$66.67
Current Price	$9.13
Upside	630.23%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.43%	14.44%	0.39	0.38	0.39	0.37	0.30	0.38	0.33	0.36	0.33	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	2.42%	-4.08%	5.52%	26.03%	-21.82%	15.03%	-7.91%	8.95%	155.43%	27.98%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.99%	5.68%	5.84%	5.23%	3.85%	5.13%	3.50%	4.40%	2.71%	1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,689.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,411.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,277.52

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	537.85	336.16	201.69
Cash Retained (M)	1,277.52	1,277.52	1,277.52
(-) Cash Required (M)	-537.85	-336.16	-201.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	739.67	941.36	1,075.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,321.57	4,321.57	4,321.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.22	0.25
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.22	0.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.54	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$38.32	$115.98	$123.76
Upside / Downside	319.75%	1,170.30%	1,255.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,689.25	2,864.05	3,050.21	3,248.47	3,459.63	3,684.50	3,795.04
Payout Ratio	52.50%	60.00%	67.50%	75.00%	82.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,411.73	1,718.32	2,058.81	2,436.30	2,854.16	3,316.05	3,510.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,592.76	1,607.86	1,622.95
Year 2 PV (M)	1,768.91	1,802.60	1,836.62
Year 3 PV (M)	1,940.29	1,995.98	2,052.74
Year 4 PV (M)	2,106.97	2,188.00	2,271.34
Year 5 PV (M)	2,269.06	2,378.66	2,492.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)	62,061.17	65,058.75	68,171.05
Equity Value (M)	71,739.17	75,031.86	78,447.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,321.57	4,321.57	4,321.57
Fair Value	$16.60	$17.36	$18.15
Upside / Downside	81.82%	90.17%	98.82%

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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (000728.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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