DDM Analysis: 000166.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.45 - $7.40	$5.76
Multi-Stage	$7.84 - $8.62	$8.22
Blended Fair Value	$6.99
Current Price	$5.33
Upside	31.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-28.43%	-4.73%	0.04	0.24	0.36	0.34	0.28	0.21	0.17	0.17	0.19	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-83.58%	-33.10%	4.50%	22.50%	33.53%	21.53%	3.39%	-11.91%	303.59%	-26.61%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.79%	5.25%	8.53%	7.77%	5.99%	4.72%	3.04%	3.33%	3.03%	0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	9,376.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,853.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	5,523.14

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,875.39	1,172.12	703.27
Cash Retained (M)	5,523.14	5,523.14	5,523.14
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,875.39	-1,172.12	-703.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,647.76	4,351.03	4,819.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	24,489.71	24,489.71	24,489.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-0.01%	0.99%	1.99%
Fair Value	$4.45	$5.76	$7.40
Upside / Downside	-16.46%	7.98%	38.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	9,376.94	9,470.17	9,564.32	9,659.41	9,755.44	9,852.43	10,148.01
Payout Ratio	41.10%	50.88%	60.66%	70.44%	80.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,853.80	4,818.32	5,801.64	6,804.04	7,825.79	8,867.19	9,386.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	-0.01%	0.99%	1.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,463.80	4,508.44	4,553.08
Year 2 PV (M)	4,979.31	5,079.40	5,180.48
Year 3 PV (M)	5,409.96	5,573.90	5,741.11
Year 4 PV (M)	5,764.54	5,998.62	6,239.75
Year 5 PV (M)	6,051.06	6,359.75	6,680.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	165,381.50	173,818.11	182,595.57
Equity Value (M)	192,050.17	201,338.21	210,990.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	24,489.71	24,489.71	24,489.71
Fair Value	$7.84	$8.22	$8.62
Upside / Downside	47.13%	54.25%	61.64%

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Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. (000166.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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