Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CJ Logistics Corporation (000120.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110,027.69 - $162,809.81$135,266.24
Multi-Stage$91,037.64 - $99,100.45$94,997.94
Blended Fair Value$115,132.09
Current Price$84,200.00
Upside36.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS97.55%0.00%1,244.162,158.45314.501,205.771,305.9441.36206.1236.1218.110.00
YoY Growth---42.36%586.32%-73.92%-7.67%3,057.81%-79.94%470.67%99.43%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.44%1.81%0.39%0.93%0.71%0.03%0.12%0.03%0.01%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)251,476.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,231.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)222,245.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50,295.2431,434.5318,860.72
Cash Retained (M)222,245.07222,245.07222,245.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-50,295.24-31,434.53-18,860.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)171,949.83190,810.55203,384.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.6619.6619.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share8,748.189,707.7410,347.45
LTM Dividend per Share1,487.171,487.171,487.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share8,748.189,707.7410,347.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend10,235.3511,194.9211,834.63
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110,027.69$135,266.24$162,809.81
Upside / Downside30.67%60.65%93.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)251,476.20267,822.16285,230.60303,770.59323,515.67344,544.19354,880.52
Payout Ratio11.62%27.30%42.97%58.65%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,231.1373,112.91122,575.82178,160.01240,452.26310,089.77328,264.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62,807.9063,403.2463,998.57
Year 2 PV (M)90,457.6392,180.6093,919.82
Year 3 PV (M)112,945.99116,188.27119,492.01
Year 4 PV (M)130,951.26135,987.27141,167.16
Year 5 PV (M)145,073.62152,080.73159,356.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,247,153.841,307,391.841,369,935.29
Equity Value (M)1,789,390.251,867,231.951,947,868.86
Shares Outstanding (M)19.6619.6619.66
Fair Value$91,037.64$94,997.94$99,100.45
Upside / Downside8.12%12.82%17.70%

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