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Definitive Analysis

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M.Yochananof and Sons (1988) Ltd (YHNF.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$261.70 - $574.35$376.06
Multi-Stage$340.48 - $373.31$356.59
Blended Fair Value$366.33
Current Price$308.50
Upside18.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.31%0.00%10.024.146.904.281.598.111.701.730.350.00
YoY Growth--141.78%-40.00%61.42%169.27%-80.42%378.51%-1.82%400.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.25%2.28%4.18%2.04%0.87%5.78%0.89%0.90%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)200.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.0125.0115.00
Cash Retained (M)95.0295.0295.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.01-25.01-15.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.0170.0280.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.4814.4814.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.804.845.53
LTM Dividend per Share7.257.257.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.804.845.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.0512.0912.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Fair Value$261.70$376.06$574.35
Upside / Downside-15.17%21.90%86.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)200.06206.68213.51220.57227.87235.41242.47
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.04124.01144.12165.43187.99211.86224.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)115.18116.30117.43
Year 2 PV (M)124.32126.76129.23
Year 3 PV (M)132.54136.46140.46
Year 4 PV (M)139.88145.43151.14
Year 5 PV (M)146.41153.71161.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,271.954,484.854,706.15
Equity Value (M)4,930.275,163.515,405.71
Shares Outstanding (M)14.4814.4814.48
Fair Value$340.48$356.59$373.31
Upside / Downside10.37%15.59%21.01%

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