Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Winton Land Limited (WTN.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.05 - $18.03$14.17
Multi-Stage$32.76 - $36.17$34.43
Blended Fair Value$24.30
Current Price$2.04
Upside1,091.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.030.030.000.060.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-13.42%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.20%1.46%0.00%1.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)312.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)304.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.5939.1223.47
Cash Retained (M)304.91304.91304.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.59-39.12-23.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)242.32265.80281.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)307.37307.37307.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.860.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.860.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.05$14.17$18.03
Upside / Downside441.75%594.77%783.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)312.95309.82306.72303.66300.62297.61306.54
Payout Ratio2.57%20.05%37.54%55.03%72.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.0462.13115.15167.09217.99267.85283.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)58.4559.0559.65
Year 2 PV (M)101.91104.00106.11
Year 3 PV (M)139.13143.43147.82
Year 4 PV (M)170.75177.83185.12
Year 5 PV (M)197.38207.66218.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,400.339,889.8310,399.51
Equity Value (M)10,067.9510,581.7911,116.57
Shares Outstanding (M)307.37307.37307.37
Fair Value$32.76$34.43$36.17
Upside / Downside1,505.64%1,587.59%1,672.87%

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