Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Vodacom Group Limited (VOD.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$289.35 - $571.80$400.30
Multi-Stage$251.81 - $273.94$262.68
Blended Fair Value$331.49
Current Price$133.29
Upside148.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-4.99%-0.60%5.646.286.677.197.087.297.106.605.925.92
YoY Growth---10.18%-5.80%-7.30%1.62%-2.88%2.72%7.44%11.61%-0.01%-1.20%
Dividend Yield--4.50%6.49%5.47%4.50%5.61%6.23%6.22%4.31%3.89%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33,613.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,538.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,075.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,722.604,201.632,520.98
Cash Retained (M)4,075.004,075.004,075.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,722.60-4,201.63-2,520.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,647.60-126.631,554.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,970.001,970.001,970.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.34-0.060.79
LTM Dividend per Share14.9914.9914.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.34-0.060.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.6514.9315.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.01%6.01%7.01%
Fair Value$289.35$400.30$571.80
Upside / Downside117.09%200.33%328.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33,613.0035,632.1737,772.6440,041.6942,447.0444,996.8946,346.80
Payout Ratio87.88%88.30%88.73%89.15%89.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,538.0031,463.7033,514.1735,697.4438,022.0840,497.2042,870.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.01%6.01%7.01%
Year 1 PV (M)28,343.6628,613.5828,883.50
Year 2 PV (M)27,196.9827,717.4528,242.85
Year 3 PV (M)26,096.0926,848.7627,615.77
Year 4 PV (M)25,039.2026,006.7227,002.01
Year 5 PV (M)24,024.5725,190.5126,401.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)365,373.83383,105.94401,519.91
Equity Value (M)496,074.32517,482.96539,665.33
Shares Outstanding (M)1,970.001,970.001,970.00
Fair Value$251.81$262.68$273.94
Upside / Downside88.92%97.08%105.52%

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