Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vastned Belgium (VASTB.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - RetailSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.36 - $26.32$22.25
Multi-Stage$29.55 - $32.53$31.01
Blended Fair Value$26.63
Current Price$32.10
Upside-17.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.05%5.67%2.201.081.050.981.391.361.251.171.201.30
YoY Growth--104.45%2.27%7.32%-29.31%1.75%8.78%6.94%-2.39%-7.72%2.65%
Dividend Yield--7.49%3.62%3.45%2.94%5.12%4.62%2.54%2.06%2.36%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.633.522.11
Cash Retained (M)26.4126.4126.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.63-3.52-2.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.7822.8924.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.6210.6210.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.962.162.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.962.162.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.122.322.45
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-2.31%-1.31%-0.31%
Fair Value$18.36$22.25$26.32
Upside / Downside-42.82%-30.68%-18.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28.1627.7927.4327.0726.7126.3627.15
Payout Ratio6.22%22.98%39.73%56.49%73.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.756.3910.9015.2919.5723.7325.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.98%8.98%8.98%
Growth Rate-2.31%-1.31%-0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)5.805.865.92
Year 2 PV (M)8.999.189.36
Year 3 PV (M)11.4611.8112.18
Year 4 PV (M)13.3213.8714.44
Year 5 PV (M)14.6715.4316.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)259.48273.04287.15
Equity Value (M)313.71329.19345.28
Shares Outstanding (M)10.6210.6210.62
Fair Value$29.55$31.01$32.53
Upside / Downside-7.93%-3.39%1.33%

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