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Definitive Analysis

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UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Limited (U10.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.76 - $44.54$41.74
Multi-Stage$5.85 - $6.40$6.12
Blended Fair Value$23.93
Current Price$2.09
Upside1,044.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.02%16.16%0.040.030.040.040.020.020.020.020.020.01
YoY Growth--54.45%-37.65%3.36%120.61%-12.26%-3.31%38.10%-24.37%198.16%-22.91%
Dividend Yield--2.34%2.00%3.11%2.69%1.36%1.82%1.86%1.18%1.56%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)159.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.9126.1915.72
Cash Retained (M)159.10159.10159.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.91-26.19-15.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.20132.91143.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)935.69935.69935.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.76$41.74$44.54
Upside / Downside558.52%1,896.97%2,030.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209.54223.16237.66253.11269.56287.09295.70
Payout Ratio24.07%37.25%50.44%63.63%76.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.4383.14119.88161.05207.06258.38273.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.0677.7978.52
Year 2 PV (M)102.99104.96106.94
Year 3 PV (M)128.25131.93135.68
Year 4 PV (M)152.84158.72164.76
Year 5 PV (M)176.78185.31194.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,831.465,064.835,307.12
Equity Value (M)5,469.385,723.545,987.20
Shares Outstanding (M)935.69935.69935.69
Fair Value$5.85$6.12$6.40
Upside / Downside179.68%192.68%206.16%

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