Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thai Wah Public Company Limited (TWPC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.45 - $2.19$1.80
Multi-Stage$3.59 - $3.96$3.77
Blended Fair Value$2.79
Current Price$2.54
Upside9.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.31%-6.51%0.090.220.220.130.130.320.320.210.360.00
YoY Growth---57.84%-0.01%61.08%0.08%-58.34%0.40%52.43%-41.66%4,091,037.75%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.82%5.96%4.44%1.97%2.75%11.47%3.88%1.68%3.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)152.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.4619.0411.42
Cash Retained (M)102.20102.20102.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.46-19.04-11.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.7383.1690.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)880.42880.42880.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.93%-1.93%-0.93%
Fair Value$1.45$1.80$2.19
Upside / Downside-42.77%-29.09%-13.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)152.32149.38146.49143.66140.89138.16142.31
Payout Ratio32.91%44.33%55.74%67.16%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1366.2281.6696.49110.71124.35131.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.93%-1.93%-0.93%
Year 1 PV (M)61.6562.2962.92
Year 2 PV (M)70.7972.2673.74
Year 3 PV (M)77.8880.3182.79
Year 4 PV (M)83.1986.6890.27
Year 5 PV (M)87.0091.5796.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,782.602,928.913,081.32
Equity Value (M)3,163.113,322.013,487.37
Shares Outstanding (M)880.42880.42880.42
Fair Value$3.59$3.77$3.96
Upside / Downside41.45%48.55%55.95%

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